Dispersal Patterns and Influence of Air Travel During the Global Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

The Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020-21, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, in turn displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of emergence, associated with accelerating passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network. Graphical Data analysis clarifies that dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 variants from their sites of initial detection was related to the amount of global air travel at the time of the variant's emergence, and that travel volume through "hub” sites distinct from the site of emergence was a key driver of variant spread.

Evaluation of miniaturized Illumina DNA preparation protocols for SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing.

The global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has increased the demand for scalable sequencing and diagnostic methods, especially for genomic surveillance. Although next-generation sequencing has enabled large-scale genomic surveillance, the ability to sequence SARS-CoV-2 in some settings has been limited by the cost of sequencing kits and the time-consuming preparations of sequencing libraries. We compared the sequencing outcomes, cost and turn-around times obtained using the standard Illumina DNA Prep kit protocol to three modified protocols with fewer clean-up steps and different reagent volumes (full volume, half volume, one-tenth volume). We processed a single run of 47 samples under each protocol and compared the yield and mean sequence coverage. The sequencing success rate and quality for the four different reactions were as follows: the full reaction was 98.2%, the one-tenth reaction was 98.0%, the full rapid reaction was 97.5% and the half-reaction, was 97.1%. As a result, uniformity of sequence quality indicated that libraries were not affected by the change in protocol. The cost of sequencing was reduced approximately seven-fold and the time taken to prepare the library was reduced from 6.5 hours to 3 hours. The sequencing results obtained using the miniaturised volumes showed comparability to the results obtained using full volumes as described by the manufacturer. The adaptation of the protocol represents a lower-cost, streamlined approach for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing, which can be used to produce genomic data quickly and more affordably, especially in resource-constrained settings.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the first four waves in Mozambique

Mozambique reported the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in March 2020 and it has since spread to all provinces in the country. To investigate the introductions and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mozambique, 1 142 whole genome sequences sampled within Mozambique were phylogenetically analyzed against a globally representative set, reflecting the first 25 months of the epidemic. The epidemic in the country was marked by four waves of infection, the first associated with B.1 ancestral lineages, while the Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of Concern (VOCs) were responsible for most infections and deaths during the second, third, and fourth waves. Large-scale viral exchanges occurred during the latter three waves and were largely attributed to southern African origins. Not only did the country remain vulnerable to the introductions of new variants but these variants continued to evolve within the borders of the country. Due to the Mozambican health system already under constraint, and paucity of data in Mozambique, there is a need to continue to strengthen and support genomic surveillance in the country as VOCs and Variants of interests (VOIs) are often reported from the southern African region.

Molecular Epidemiology and Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia, 2020-2022.

Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and the sixth most affected by COVID-19 on the continent. Despite having experienced five infection waves, >499,000 cases, and ~7500 COVID-19-related deaths as of January 2023, there is still no detailed genomic epidemiological report on the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia. In this study, we reconstructed and elucidated the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics. Specifically, we investigated the introduction, local transmission, ongoing evolution, and spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first four infection waves using 353 high-quality near-whole genomes sampled in Ethiopia. Our results show that whereas viral introductions seeded the first wave, subsequent waves were seeded by local transmission. The B.1.480 lineage emerged in the first wave and notably remained in circulation even after the emergence of the Alpha variant. The B.1.480 was outcompeted by the Delta variant. Notably, Ethiopia's lack of local sequencing capacity was further limited by sporadic, uneven, and insufficient sampling that limited the incorporation of genomic epidemiology in the epidemic public health response in Ethiopia. These results highlight Ethiopia's role in SARS-CoV-2 dissemination and the urgent need for balanced, near-real-time genomic sequencing.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection with accumulation of mutations in a patient with poorly controlled HIV infection.

A 22-year-old female with uncontrolled advanced HIV infection was persistently infected with SARS-CoV-2 beta variant for 9 months, the virus accumulating >20 additional mutations. Antiretroviral therapy suppressed HIV and cleared SARS-CoV-2 within 6-9 weeks. Increased vigilance is warranted to benefit affected individuals and prevent the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection. METHODS: We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection. RESULTS: Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least 3 doses vs. no vaccine) were protective. CONCLUSION: Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Ethics and governance challenges related to genomic data sharing in southern Africa: the case of SARS-CoV-2.

Data sharing in research is fraught with controversy. Academic success is premised on competitive advantage, with research teams protecting their research findings until publication. Research funders, by contrast, often require data sharing. Beyond traditional research and funding requirements, surveillance data have become contentious. Public health emergencies involving pathogens require intense genomic surveillance efforts and call for the rapid sharing of data on the basis of public interest. Under these circumstances, timely sharing of data becomes a matter of scientific integrity. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the transformative potential of genomic pathogen data sharing became obvious and advanced the debate on data sharing. However, when the genomic sequencing data of the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was shared and announced by scientists in southern Africa, various challenges arose, including travel bans. The scientific, economic, and moral impact was catastrophic. Yet, travel restrictions failed to mitigate the spread of the variant already present in countries outside Africa. Public perceptions of the negative effect of data sharing are detrimental to the willingness of research participants to consent to sharing data in postpandemic research and future pandemics. Global health governance organisations have an important role in developing guidance on responsible sharing of genomic pathogen data in public health emergencies.

Immunogenicity of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection and Ad26.CoV2.S Vaccination in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV).

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWH) have been reported to have a higher risk of more severe COVID-19 disease and death. We assessed the ability of the Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine to elicit neutralizing activity against the Delta variant in PLWH relative to HIV-negative individuals. We also examined effects of HIV status and suppression on Delta neutralization response in SARS-CoV-2-infected unvaccinated participants. METHODS: We enrolled participants who were vaccinated through the SISONKE South African clinical trial of the Ad26.CoV2.S vaccine in healthcare workers (HCWs). PLWH in this group had well-controlled HIV infection. We also enrolled unvaccinated participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. Neutralization capacity was assessed by a live virus neutralization assay of the Delta variant. RESULTS: Most Ad26.CoV2.S vaccinated HCWs were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. In this group, Delta variant neutralization was 9-fold higher compared with the infected-only group and 26-fold higher relative to the vaccinated-only group. No decrease in Delta variant neutralization was observed in PLWH relative to HIV-negative participants. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2-infected, unvaccinated PLWH showed 7-fold lower neutralization and a higher frequency of nonresponders, with the highest frequency of nonresponders in people with HIV viremia. Vaccinated-only participants showed low neutralization capacity. CONCLUSIONS: The neutralization response of the Delta variant following Ad26.CoV2.S vaccination in PLWH with well-controlled HIV was not inferior to HIV-negative participants, irrespective of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. In SARS-CoV-2-infected and nonvaccinated participants, HIV infection reduced the neutralization response to SARS-CoV-2, with the strongest reduction in HIV viremic individuals.

SARS-CoV-2 Genetic Diversity and Lineage Dynamics in Egypt during the First 18 Months of the Pandemic.

COVID-19 was first diagnosed in Egypt on 14 February 2020. By the end of November 2021, over 333,840 cases and 18,832 deaths had been reported. As part of the national genomic surveillance, 1027 SARS-CoV-2 near whole-genomes were generated and published by the end of July 2021. Here we describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Egypt over this period using a subset of 976 high-quality Egyptian genomes analyzed together with a representative set of global sequences within a phylogenetic framework. A single lineage, C.36, introduced early in the pandemic was responsible for most of the cases in Egypt. Furthermore, to remain dominant in the face of mounting immunity from previous infections and vaccinations, this lineage acquired several mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage. These results highlight the value of continuous genomic surveillance in regions where VOCs are not predominant and the need for enforcement of public health measures to prevent expansion of the existing lineages.

Omicron BA.4/BA.5 escape neutralizing immunity elicited by BA.1 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages, first detected in South Africa, have changes relative to Omicron BA.1 including substitutions in the spike receptor binding domain. Here we isolated live BA.4 and BA.5 viruses and measured BA.4/BA.5 neutralization elicited by BA.1 infection either in the absence or presence of previous vaccination as well as from vaccination without BA.1 infection. In BA.1-infected unvaccinated individuals, neutralization relative to BA.1 declines 7.6-fold for BA.4 and 7.5-fold for BA.5. In vaccinated individuals with subsequent BA.1 infection, neutralization relative to BA.1 decreases 3.2-fold for BA.4 and 2.6-fold for BA.5. The fold-drop versus ancestral virus neutralization in this group is 4.0-fold for BA.1, 12.9-fold for BA.4, and 10.3-fold for BA.5. In contrast, BA.4/BA.5 escape is similar to BA.1 in the absence of BA.1 elicited immunity: fold-drop relative to ancestral virus neutralization is 19.8-fold for BA.1, 19.6-fold for BA.4, and 20.9-fold for BA.5. These results show considerable escape of BA.4/BA.5 from BA.1 elicited immunity which is moderated with vaccination and may indicate that BA.4/BA.5 may have the strongest selective advantage in evading neutralization relative to BA.1 in unvaccinated, BA.1 infected individuals.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa.

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections - a survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: At present, it is unclear whether the extent of reduced risk of severe disease seen with SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant infection is caused by a decrease in variant virulence or by higher levels of population immunity. METHODS: RdRp target delay (RTD) in the Seegene AllplexTM 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta variant. The absence of this proxy marker in the transition period was used to identify suspected Omicron infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene AllplexTM assay from November 1 to December 14, 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, in the public sector. Adjustments were made for vaccination status and prior diagnosis of infection. RESULTS: A total of 150 cases with RTD and 1486 cases without RTD were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective against admission, with an aHR of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.26-0.77). CONCLUSION: Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission compared with contemporaneous Delta infection, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence.

Omicron infection enhances Delta antibody immunity in vaccinated persons.

The extent to which Omicron infection1-9, with or without previous vaccination, elicits protection against the previously dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is unclear. Here we measured the neutralization capacity against variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 39 individuals in South Africa infected with the Omicron sublineage BA.1 starting at a median of 6 (interquartile range 3-9) days post symptom onset and continuing until last follow-up sample available, a median of 23 (interquartile range 19-27) days post symptoms to allow BA.1-elicited neutralizing immunity time to develop. Fifteen participants were vaccinated with Pfizer's BNT162b2 or Johnson & Johnson's Ad26.CoV2.S and had BA.1 breakthrough infections, and 24 were unvaccinated. BA.1 neutralization increased from a geometric mean 50% focus reduction neutralization test titre of 42 at enrolment to 575 at the last follow-up time point (13.6-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 46 to 272 (6.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. Delta virus neutralization also increased, from 192 to 1,091 (5.7-fold) in vaccinated participants and from 28 to 91 (3.0-fold) in unvaccinated participants. At the last time point, unvaccinated individuals infected with BA.1 had low absolute levels of neutralization for the non-BA.1 viruses and 2.2-fold lower BA.1 neutralization, 12.0-fold lower Delta neutralization, 9.6-fold lower Beta variant neutralization, 17.9-fold lower ancestral virus neutralization and 4.8-fold lower Omicron sublineage BA.2 neutralization relative to vaccinated individuals infected with BA.1. These results indicate that hybrid immunity formed by vaccination and Omicron BA.1 infection should be protective against Delta and other variants. By contrast, infection with Omicron BA.1 alone offers limited cross-protection despite moderate enhancement.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing using the ONT GridION and the Illumina MiSeq.

BACKGROUND: Over 4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been sequenced globally in the past 2 years. This has been crucial in elucidating transmission chains within communities, the development of new diagnostic methods, vaccines, and antivirals. Although several sequencing technologies have been employed, Illumina and Oxford Nanopore remain the two most commonly used platforms. The sequence quality between these two platforms warrants a comparison of the genomes produced by the two technologies. Here, we compared the SARS-CoV-2 consensus genomes obtained from the Oxford Nanopore Technology GridION and the Illumina MiSeq for 28 sequencing runs. RESULTS: Our results show that the MiSeq had a significantly higher number of consensus genomes classified by Nextclade as good and mediocre compared to the GridION. The MiSeq also had a significantly higher genome coverage and mutation counts than the GridION. CONCLUSION: Due to the low genome coverage, high number of indels, and sensitivity to SARS-CoV-2 viral load noted with the GridION when compared to MiSeq, we can conclude that the MiSeq is more favourable for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, as successful genomic surveillance is dependent on high quality, near-whole consensus genomes.

Emergence and phenotypic characterization of the global SARS-CoV-2 C.1.2 lineage.

Global genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has identified variants associated with increased transmissibility, neutralization resistance and disease severity. Here we report the emergence of the PANGO lineage C.1.2, detected at low prevalence in South Africa and eleven other countries. The initial C.1.2 detection is associated with a high substitution rate, and includes changes within the spike protein that have been associated with increased transmissibility or reduced neutralization sensitivity in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern or variants of interest. Like Beta and Delta, C.1.2 shows significantly reduced neutralization sensitivity to plasma from vaccinees and individuals infected with the ancestral D614G virus. In contrast, convalescent donors infected with either Beta or Delta show high plasma neutralization against C.1.2. These functional data suggest that vaccine efficacy against C.1.2 will be equivalent to Beta and Delta, and that prior infection with either Beta or Delta will likely offer protection against C.1.2.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, assess the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection and determine whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained. METHODS: In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November and 11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalisation or death and any hospitalisation or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection. RESULTS: We included 5144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. The risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for a modest reduction in risk of severe hospitalisation or death compared to the Delta-driven wave.

Selection Analysis Identifies Clusters of Unusual Mutational Changes in Omicron Lineage BA.1 That Likely Impact Spike Function.

Among the 30 nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions in the Omicron S-gene are 13 that have only rarely been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These mutations cluster within three functionally important regions of the S-gene at sites that will likely impact (1) interactions between subunits of the Spike trimer and the predisposition of subunits to shift from down to up configurations, (2) interactions of Spike with ACE2 receptors, and (3) the priming of Spike for membrane fusion. We show here that, based on both the rarity of these 13 mutations in intrapatient sequencing reads and patterns of selection at the codon sites where the mutations occur in SARS-CoV-2 and related sarbecoviruses, prior to the emergence of Omicron the mutations would have been predicted to decrease the fitness of any virus within which they occurred. We further propose that the mutations in each of the three clusters therefore cooperatively interact to both mitigate their individual fitness costs, and, in combination with other mutations, adaptively alter the function of Spike. Given the evident epidemic growth advantages of Omicron overall previously known SARS-CoV-2 lineages, it is crucial to determine both how such complex and highly adaptive mutation constellations were assembled within the Omicron S-gene, and why, despite unprecedented global genomic surveillance efforts, the early stages of this assembly process went completely undetected.